A reproducible ensemble machine learning approach to forecast dengue outbreaks.

Dengue fever, a prevalent and rapidly spreading arboviral disease, poses substantial public health and economic challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks on a countrywide scale is complex due to spatiotemporal variations in dengue incidence across administrative areas. To address this, we propose a machine learning ensemble model for forecasting the dengue incidence rate (DIR) in Brazil, with a focus on the population under 19 years old. The model integrates spatial and temporal information, providing one-month-ahead DIR estimates at the state level. Comparative analyses with a dummy model and ablation studies demonstrate the ensemble model's qualitative and quantitative efficacy across the 27 Brazilian Federal Units. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of this approach to Peru, another Latin American country with differing epidemiological characteristics. This timely forecast system can aid local governments in implementing targeted control measures. The study advances climate services for health by identifying factors triggering dengue outbreaks in Brazil and Peru, emphasizing collaborative efforts with intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions. The innovation lies not only in the algorithms themselves but in their application to a domain marked by data scarcity and operational scalability challenges. We bridge the gap by integrating well-curated ground data with advanced analytical methods, addressing a significant deficiency in current practices. The successful transfer of the model to Peru and its consistent performance during the 2019 outbreak in Brazil showcase its scalability and practical application. While acknowledging limitations in handling extreme values, especially in regions with low DIR, our approach excels where accurate predictions are critical. The study not only contributes to advancing DIR forecasting but also represents a paradigm shift in integrating advanced analytics into public health operational frameworks. This work, driven by a collaborative spirit involving intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions, sets a precedent for interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges. It not only enhances our understanding of factors triggering dengue outbreaks but also serves as a template for the effective implementation of advanced analytical methods in public health.

Trusted Autonomous Operations of Distributed Satellite Systems Using Optical Sensors.

Recent developments in Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS) have undoubtedly increased mission value due to the ability to reconfigure the spacecraft cluster/formation and incrementally add new or update older satellites in the formation. These features provide inherent benefits, such as increased mission effectiveness, multi-mission capabilities, design flexibility, and so on. Trusted Autonomous Satellite Operation (TASO) are possible owing to the predictive and reactive integrity features offered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), including both on-board satellites and in the ground control segments. To effectively monitor and manage time-critical events such as disaster relief missions, the DSS must be able to reconfigure autonomously. To achieve TASO, the DSS should have reconfiguration capability within the architecture and spacecraft should communicate with each other through an Inter-Satellite Link (ISL). Recent advances in AI, sensing, and computing technologies have resulted in the development of new promising concepts for the safe and efficient operation of the DSS. The combination of these technologies enables trusted autonomy in intelligent DSS (iDSS) operations, allowing for a more responsive and resilient approach to Space Mission Management (SMM) in terms of data collection and processing, especially when using state-of-the-art optical sensors. This research looks into the potential applications of iDSS by proposing a constellation of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for near-real-time wildfire management. For spacecraft to continuously monitor Areas of Interest (AOI) in a dynamically changing environment, satellite missions must have extensive coverage, revisit intervals, and reconfiguration capability that iDSS can offer. Our recent work demonstrated the feasibility of AI-based data processing using state-of-the-art on-board astrionics hardware accelerators. Based on these initial results, AI-based software has been successively developed for wildfire detection on-board iDSS satellites. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed iDSS architecture, simulation case studies are performed considering different geographic locations.

Cyanoacrylate surgical glue as an alternative to suture threads for mesh fixation in hernia repair.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the use of synthetic glues has become an established practice in several areas of surgical treatment. For example, they are used in open and laparoscopic surgery and in digestive tract endoscopy, interventional radiology, and vascular neuroradiology. The experiments in this study were aimed at elucidating that suture-based permanent mesh fixation can be replaced by fixation with N-butyl 2-cyanoacrylate glue (Glubran2) for surgical repair of abdominal wall hernias. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 25 Wistar rats, two hernia defects (1.5 cm in diameter) per animal were created bilaterally in the midline of the abdominal wall. The peritoneum was spared. The lesions were left untreated for 10 d to achieve a chronic condition. Then the defects were covered with TiMESH extralight (2 × 2 cm) and fixed by 30 µL of Glubran2 or traditional suture. The time points of sacrifice were 17 and 28 d, 3, 4, and 5 mo. At autopsy, histology and immunohistochemistry were performed to evaluate the inflammatory response and the presence of apoptotic cells respectively. RESULTS: Mesh fixation was excellent in all samples at each time point. At application sites, the inflammatory reaction was mild with a small number of macrophages and vascularized connective tissue presence around glue and mesh threads. Glue residues were observed in histologic sections at each time point. No presence of apoptotic cells was found. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that Glubran2 can effectively replace traditional suture in mesh fixation without affecting tissue healing and determining a physiological inflammatory reaction at the abdominal wall site.

Tissue response to poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane-fibrin composite scaffolds for controlled delivery of pro-angiogenic growth factors.

The development of a scaffold able to mimic the mechanical properties of elastic tissues and to induce local angiogenesis by controlled release of angiogenic growth factors could be applied in the treatment of several ischemic diseases. For this purpose a composite scaffold made of a poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane (PEtU-PDMS) semi-interpenetrating polymeric network (semi-IPN) and fibrin loaded growth factors (GFs), such as VEGF and bFGF, was manufactured using spray, phase-inversion technique. To evaluate the contribution of each scaffold component with respect to tissue response and in particular to blood vessel formation, three different scaffold formulations were developed as follows: 1) bare PEtU-PDMS; 2) PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin; and 3) PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin + GFs. Scaffolds were characterized in vitro respect to their morphology, VEGF and bFGF release kinetics and bioactivity. The induction of in vivo angiogenesis after subcutaneous and ischemic hind limb scaffold implantation in adult Wistar rats was evaluated at 7 and 14 days by immunohistological analysis (IHA), while Laser Doppler Perfusion Imaging (LDPI) was performed in the hind limbs at 0, 3, 7, 10 and 14 days. IHA of subcutaneously implanted samples showed that at 7 and 14 days the PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin + GFs scaffold induced a statistically significant increase in number of capillaries compared to bare PEtU-PDMS scaffold. IHA of ischemic hind limb showed that at 14 days the capillary number induced by PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin + GFs scaffolds was higher than that of PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin scaffolds. Moreover, at both time-points PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin scaffolds induced a significant increase in number of capillaries compared to bare PEtU-PDMS scaffolds. LDPI showed that at 10 and 14 days the ischemic/non-ischemic blood perfusion ratio was significantly greater in the PEtU-PDMS/Fibrin + GFs than in the other scaffolds. In conclusion, this study showed that the semi-IPN composite scaffold acting as a pro-angiogenic GFs delivery system has therapeutic potential for the local treatment of ischemic tissue and wound healing.

The effect of gamma irradiation on physical-mechanical properties and cytotoxicity of polyurethane-polydimethylsiloxane microfibrillar vascular grafts.

Poly(ether) urethane (PEtU)-polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) based materials have been processed by a spray, phase-inversion technique to produce microfibrillar small-diameter vascular grafts; however the effect of sterilization upon these grafts is still unknown. This study investigated the effect of gamma irradiation on grafts made of PEtU-PDMS materials containing different PDMS concentrations. Sterilisation-induced changes in surface chemical structure and morphology were assessed by infrared spectroscopy, light and scanning electron microscopy. Tensile tests were used to examine changes in mechanical properties and the cytotoxicity evaluation was performed on L929 fibroblasts. The study demonstrated that physical-chemical and mechanical properties of PEtU-PDMS grafts, at each PDMS concentration, were not significantly affected by the exposure to gamma irradiation, moreover no sign of cytotoxicity was observed after sterilisation. Although in vitro experiments have been promising, further in vivo studies are necessary to evaluate the biodegradation behaviour of PEtU-PDMS graft after gamma irradiation, before any clinical application.

Long term performance of small-diameter vascular grafts made of a poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane semi-interpenetrating polymeric network.

In the past years considerable research efforts have been directed at developing more suitable synthetic vascular grafts, but small-diameter vascular grafts (SDVGs) perform less well than autogenous arterial or venous grafts. Grafts such as Dacron and ePTFE have often been used as alternatives to autologous grafts, but they have shown poor patency rates when used in small-diameter sizes or low-flow locations. Nevertheless, despite these efforts no alternative concepts have emerged yet that promises to replace the current generation of synthetic grafts soon. The purpose of this preliminary in vivo study was to assess the blood and tissue compatibility behaviors of a novel compliant SDVGs, fabricated with a poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane (PEtU-PDMS) semi-interpenetrating polymeric network (semi-IPN) and featuring two different porous layers in the wall thickness. Grafts were implanted according to anastomotic techniques which emulate the flow conditions clinically adopted for peripheral or aorto-coronary bypass procedures. Relatively long grafts were implanted in the common carotid artery of adult sheep and compared to standard ePTFE grafts of the same size and length implanted controlaterally. The animal experimentation showed superior handling and compliance characteristics, and patency rates of PEtU-PDMS grafts in comparison with a standard ePTFE graft, and the ability of remodelling in vivo while being gradually replaced by a natural tissue with no sign of calcification.

A composite fibrin-based scaffold for controlled delivery of bioactive pro-angiogenetic growth factors.

The aim of this study was to fabricate and characterize in vitro a novel composite scaffold that, combining good mechanical properties with a controlled and sustained release of bioactive pro-angiogenetic growth factors, should be useful for angiogenesis induction in organs/tissues in which is also necessary to give resistance and mechanical strength. Composite scaffolds, constituted by a synthetic biocompatible material, a poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane blend, and a biological polymer, the fibrin, were manufactured by spray, phase-inversion technique. During the manufacturing process heparin and heparin-binding growth factors, such as VEGF(165) and bFGF, were incorporated into the fibrin layer. Microscopical examinations showed a homogeneous fibrin layer firmly adherent on top of the synthetic material. Tensile tests highlighted the high elasticity of the composite scaffold and its capability to maintain integrity up to high deformation. VEGF(165) and bFGF release were controlled by fibrinogen concentration, whereas it was not affected by heparin concentration, as revealed by ELISA assay. The biological activity of the released growth factors was maintained as demonstrated by HUVEC proliferation. Finally, scaffolds induced a low monocyte mRNA expression of inflammatory markers (IL-8, L-SEL, LFA-1 and iNOS). In conclusion, the new composite scaffolds, once implanted, providing a co-localization and temporal distribution of bioactive VEGF and bFGF in addition to good mechanical properties, may be useful to stimulate new vessels formation in ischemic tissues.

Glubran2 surgical glue: in vitro evaluation of adhesive and mechanical properties.

BACKGROUND: In surgical and endoscopic procedures, tissue adhesives are commonly used as reinforcement of sutures or as bonding and hemostatic agents. Fibrin glues do not guarantee adequate properties for many clinical applications; on the contrary, cyanoacrylate glues guarantee high bonding strength between biologic tissues. The aim of this study was to provide evidence regarding adhesive and strength properties of a widely used cyanoacrylate glue, Glubran2, GEM s.r.l., Viareggio, Italy. Comparative tests were also carried out on a commercial fibrin glue. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Glubran2 is a modified n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate glue approved for internal and external use, in Europe. The glue, on contact with living tissues polymerizes rapidly, generating a film that guarantees firm adherence of tissues. In this study, adhesive properties on biologic substrates, both of Glubran2 and of fibrin glue, were investigated according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards, while their strength, after polymerization on an inert substrate, was investigated according to Deutsches Institut Für Normung (DIN) standards. RESULTS: All tests evidenced a strong bonding capability of Glubran2 on biologic tissues and high tensile strength of polymerized film; high breaking strength of polymerized glue was highlighted by tensile tests. CONCLUSION: The present study fills the gap concerning Glubran2 adhesive and tensile properties. All tests showed the intrinsic tensile strength of polymerized Glubran2 and its capability to realize a higher-resistance bonding among biologic tissues, in comparison with fibrin glue, giving strong indication of its usefulness in surgical and endoscopic practice, especially in a wet environment.

Evaluation of a new composite prosthesis for the repair of abdominal wall defects.

The degree of integration of biomaterials used in the repair of abdominal wall defects seems to depend upon the structure of the prosthesis. The present investigation evaluates the behaviour in terms of adhesion formation and integration of a new composite prosthesis that could be employed in this clinical application. Full-thickness abdominal wall defects (7 x 5 cm) were created in 16 anaesthetized New Zealand white rabbits and the prosthesis were placed in direct contact with the visceral peritoneum during the experiment. The defects were repaired with a composite prosthesis or pure polypropylene mesh to establish two study groups (n = 8 each). The composite device was constituted by a polypropylene mesh physically attached to a poly(ether)urethane-polydimethylsiloxane laminar sheet. Animals were sacrificed 7, 14, 21 and 30 days after implant and prosthesis/surrounding tissue specimens subjected to light and electron microscopy. Firm adhesions were detected in the polypropylene implants, while they were not present in the composite implants. The excellent behaviour of the composite prosthesis shown in this study warrants further investigation on its use for the repair of abdominal wall defects when a prosthetic device needs to be placed in contact with the intestinal loops.

PDMS content affects in vitro hemocompatibility of synthetic vascular grafts.

An unsolved problem when employing small-diameter vascular grafts for aorto-coronary by-pass and peripheral reconstruction is the early thrombotic occlusion. The PEtU-PDMS is a new elastomeric material, composed of poly(ether)urethane and polydimethylsiloxane, synthesized to realize grafts with improved hemocompatibility characteristics. In order to investigate the effect of PDMS content on hemocompatibility, three different percentages of PDMS containing grafts (10, 25 and 40) were evaluated. Grafts realized with Estane 5714-F1 and silicone medical grade tubes were used as references. The hemocompatibility was investigated by an in vitro circuit in which human anticoagulated blood was circulated into grafts by a peristaltic pump modified to obtain a passive flow. For each experiment, 40 cm length graft was closed into a circular loop and put in rotation for 2 h at 37 degrees C. At the end of the experiments different parameters regarding platelet adhesion and activation were evaluated: circulating platelets count, beta-thromboglobulin release, platelet CD62P expression and amount of monocyte-platelet conjugates. PEtU-PDMS grafts with 25 and 40% of PDMS induced the lowest platelet adhesion, plasma level of beta-TG and amount of monocyte-platelet conjugates. No significative variations were observed in CD62P expression. In conclusion, PDMS content significatively affects blood-graft surface interaction, in fact higher PDMS percentage containing grafts showed the best in vitro hemocompatibility.

Granulocyte- and monocyte-platelet adhesion index in coronary and peripheral blood after extracorporeal circulation and reperfusion.

BACKGROUND: Neutrophil-granulocyte and mononuclear-cell functional changes occur during cardiopulmonary bypass and cardiovascular surgery. In particular, leukocyte-platelet interaction, leading to generation of heterotypic coaggregates, represents an amplification mechanism of the local inflammatory response and tissue damage. METHODS: Samples of 20 patients were drawn from venous coronary sinus before cardioplegic arrest and immediately after reperfusion, as well as from peripheral blood at 5 and 24 h postoperatively. The granulocyte and monocyte surface expression of CD162, CD15s, CD18, and CD11b were quantified by flow cytometry at the different times. Parallel variations of circulating leukocyte-platelet conjugates (percentages) and a derived (cell number-normalized) leukocyte-platelet adhesion index were measured using a combination of antibodies against CD45, CD14, and CD41a. The evaluation of platelet functional state was carried out using antibodies against CD62P (P-selectin) and PAC-1. RESULTS: Monocyte and granulocyte cell number increased markedly in coronary blood at reperfusion and in peripheral blood postoperatively when compared with measurements done before cardioplegia. A very different course characterized the changes of the leukocyte-platelet adhesion index with respect to the variations of circulating leukocyte-platelet coaggregates (percentages). Leukocyte molecules expression showed no significant variations for CD15s on both the leukocyte subsets, while a significant up-modulation for CD162 was observed on monocytes at 24 h after extracorporeal circulation (P = 0.0002), and for CD11b on granulocytes at 5 h postoperatively (P = 0.033). A loss of CD162 expression was observed in coronary blood at reperfusion (P = 0.0038) on granulocytes, associated to a down-modulation of CD18 (P = 0.0033) and CD11b (P = 0.0184) in peripheral blood at 24 h postoperatively. No significant up-regulation of platelet activatory molecules expression was found at coronary reperfusion, as well as postoperatively in the peripheral blood, when compared with the before-cardioplegia derived data. CONCLUSIONS: The over time variations of a normalized leukocyte-platelet adhesion index seem to reflect the cumulative leukocyte-platelet functional interaction more accurately than the parallel measurements of cellular conjugates. The absence of platelet activation suggests that the leukocyte membrane modifications play a main role in controlling the formation and stability of heterotypic leukocyte-platelet coaggregates after cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation.

Post-reperfusion changes of monocyte function in coronary blood after extracorporeal circulation.

BACKGROUND: Neutrophil and mononuclear cell functional changes represent a hallmark of inflammation during cardiopulmonary bypass and cardiovascular surgery. Knowledge of mechanisms underlying monocyte functional modulation in coronary blood may be useful to develop protective interventions that can limit ischemia/reperfusion injury. METHODS: Samples of 13 patients were drawn from venous coronary sinus before cardioplegic arrest and after reperfusion. The following parameters were studied: surface molecules expression (CD18, CD11b, CD44, CD162, CD15s, CD80, CD86, CD16, CD49d, CD29, CD25, HLA-DR, Toll-like receptor-4 [TLR-4], CXCR1, CCR2, CCR5, CX3CR1), oxidative burst response, monocyte-platelet conjugates (using antibodies against CD45, CD14, CD41a), and platelet activation (CD62P, PAC-1). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were performed to measure levels of interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha). RESULTS: Coronary reperfusion down-modulated monocyte molecules expression, especially for CD18 (P = 0.048), CD44 (P = 0.0035), CD49d (P = 0.0029), CD29 (P = 0.032), HLA-DR (P < 0.0001), TLR-4 (P = 0.0109), CCR2 (P = 0.0184), CCR5 (P = 0.0396), and CX3CR1 (P < 0.0001). A marginal increase (P = 0.062) of a normalized adhesion index between monocytes and platelets was observed at reperfusion. No variations were detected for the monocyte oxidative burst and platelet activation. Increased levels of IL-6 (P = 0.013), TNF-alpha (P = 0.0272), and IL-10 (P = 0.0008) were measured after cardioplegia. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of CD11b and CD25 variations and of the oxidative burst exclude monocyte activation at reperfusion. The high after-cardioplegia level of IL-10, the decreased expression of HLA-DR and TLR-4, and the absence of IL-1beta and IL-8 suggest an IL-10-mediated functional depression of monocyte, including their adhesive and migratory capacities. The lack of an after-cardioplegia orientation toward IL-10 producing a "macrophage-like" CD14+/CD16+ phenotype might mean that myocardial infiltrating lymphocytes are the main source of IL-10. Moreover, the increased after-cardioplegia levels of IL-6 and TNF-alpha might be due to myocardial and endothelial activations. The increased adhesion index between monocyte and platelets, without receptor variations, suggests a monocyte membrane modification induced by extracorporeal circulation.